如何看待:股市中的确定性

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中国股市有超级多的散户组成,1.5亿股票账户,有1亿多的散户股民笔者刚刚查了一下,全球除去中国之外,人口超过1亿的国家还有10个;中国股民的数量之大可想而知。如此大基数的散户股民在全球是独一无二的。这种独一无二的散户结构也造就了独一无二的中国股市。

散户投资者有一个共同点就是追求短期的盈利目标;很多人甚至来股市中是为了赌一把运气,快进快出;挣钱就走但股市深似海;散户到了股市就离不开;因为被套的时候不能走,解套都挣钱了就更不能走散户追涨杀跌的交易特性明显

中国股市独一无二的交易规则,单向交易,T + 1中。

其中单向交易是对股市影响巨大的大家参与股市是为了能够盈利,而盈利只能做多当行情开始上涨,市场赚钱效应开始显现;吸引股民进场,股民进场肯定是做多,股价就会被继续推高;市场越来越赚钱,于是更多散户进场,往复循环行情不断上涨

中国股市中散户的羊群效应明显的主要原因也在于此;大家一哄而上参加击鼓传花的游戏,越早进场越有优势,可以兑现筹码将风险传给别人;于是快牛行情爆发,快长快跌

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2015年的牛市到熊市

而在多空双向交易的市场中,当行情向上推动就会有一部分看空的资金入场打压行情,毕竟做空股票股价下跌也是可以盈利的。空头对多头形成压制,股市多头的力量不会短时间聚集爆发,于是慢牛形成。

今年网上讨论最多的是美国的10年牛市。

XXUS stock market After the 2008 financial crisis, the Fed launched a quantitative easing monetary policy; the United States entered a 10-year bull market. 10 years, the bull market is so envious, how much money do you have to earn? But please don't use the thinking logic of the Chinese stock market to consider the US stock market. After all, the US stock market is a long-term two-way transaction. During the 10-year rise in the stock market, there are certainly many people who are shorting and being shackled and losing money in the process of rising; this quilt and loss are the same as we are in the stock market.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 281% from March 2009 to July 3019

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How is deterministic use of this certainty?

In the bear market's tail layout, it is profitable in the bull market. Let me talk about the logic of investment in the stock market.

1, long-term investment, adopting a strategy of buying and holding in batches.

2, buy blue chips and leading; (such as brokers, banks) long-term investment stocks fundamental stability is the most important, otherwise the stocks bought will deduct from the market and the water is empty.

3, take 3000 points as a long and short watershed, only buy below 3000 points, only sell above 3000 points.

4, open a position in batches to get the average price of more positions.

5, long-term investment, patience is the most important, patiently waiting for the stock price to rise.

Investors should focus on what happens in the stock market, not when it happens.

Let me look at a picture. In 2009, China’s stock market was around 3,000 points. In 2019, China’s stock market was still around 3,000 points. In the past 10 years, China’s economy has developed steadily, GDP has basically maintained a growth rate of 7%, but the stock market is still in the original. Step by step, retail investors' fast-forward and fast-moving speculative trading and only one-way one-way trading rules are the main reasons.

The real bull market in 10 years is even less than one year.

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2015年真正的牛市仅在2015年半年

回到交易问题;中国股市没有美国慢牛的基础,牛市又快而短。而不是专注于很少见的大牛市,最好关注小牛队。

10倍的大牛股无法赶上它,它的盈利可能是小牛股的多倍。你说什么?